A recent study indicates that about 80% of us are
optimists and that our optimism interferes with our acceptance of reality
(1,2). My first reaction was “Nonsense!” but then I realized that I was being
optimistic and not accepting reality. Before my dilemma sends me into an
infinite loop, here is a brief outline of the work by Sharot, Korn and Dolan.
A small group (a total of about 40 young adult
‘lab-rats’ in three groups) were ‘trained’ on estimating the probability of
something bad happening to them such as getting PTSD or dying before 90.
The big test came with a huge list of nasties that
could happen from getting their bike stolen, through getting divorced to dying
of cancer. fMRI scans were included when the candidates were then given the statistical
risks that we all face. They were again asked to rate their probability of experiencing the personal disasters.
With such a long list, their memories would have to
have been much better than normal to be accurate of course. As mentioned above,
most people were optimists. With conditions that they had heard that they had
lower chances of being at the receiving end, they updated their estimates
markedly in that direction. However, when the reverse was the case, their
correction to their estimate was much less.
Well, of course, most of us are optimists, but the
stats are out there. Were they not listening? The fMRI scans showed that they
weren’t doing sufficient processing. The scans showed low activity in the part
of the brain by your right front temple. This is the part that controls your
risk aversion. So, the optimistic participants were reckoning that they would
beat the odds – the stats were for the rest of us.
I guess most of the lemmings must think that they
are out for a pleasant cross-country run! Maybe not the best survival strategy.
- http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nn.2949
- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15214080
